IEA chief sees energy security pressures lasting into 2027 as LNG spending rises

Energy security pressures will continue to shape markets in 2027, with International Energy Agency executive director Fatih Birol warning against expectations of a return to pre-war conditions, Offshore Energy reported. The outlook comes as governments reassess supply relationships and infrastructure priorities following disruption linked to the Middle East conflict.

According to the report, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz came to a standstill, exposing vulnerabilities in energy supplies and increasing the urgency of finding alternative suppliers and delivery routes. Europe also faces diesel and gas constraints. Birol expects the crisis to encourage governments to spread their reliance across a wider range of trading partners, routes, fuels and technologies.

LNG features prominently in the investment response. Offshore Energy, citing IEA projections, said US energy spending was expected to increase by 6% to almost $610 billion in 2026, with LNG spending rising nearly fourfold. The United States is projected to account for nearly half of global LNG export capacity by 2030. Battery storage, geothermal energy and nuclear power are also contributing to US investment growth.

European Union energy investment is forecast to reach $440 billion, driven by concerns over supply security and affordability, alongside diversification and faster electrification. Natural gas remains part of the bloc’s supply-security strategy, particularly through LNG. The report cited infrastructure investment of $17 billion in 2025 in that context.

Globally, the IEA forecasts energy investment of $3.4 trillion in 2026, up 5% from 2025, with China, the United States and the EU providing the main impetus. Low-emissions technologies, nuclear power, storage and grids are expected to attract $2.2 trillion, compared with $1.2 trillion for fossil fuels. Electricity-related expenditure already represents nearly 60% of worldwide energy investment.

The agency’s May 2026 World Energy Investment report identified security, reliability and diversification as increasingly important project-selection criteria alongside cost and environmental performance. Asia had received 80–90% of Gulf producers’ energy exports, highlighting its exposure to disruption. Offshore Energy also reported roughly 90 GW of nuclear capacity under construction as countries seek more resilient energy systems.