European diesel shortages pulled additional cargoes from the Americas and Asia during September 2026, as refinery disruption and inland transport constraints lifted prices and margins, according to Alkagesta Newsroom. Its market review describes acute tightness across Northwest Europe and the Mediterranean, with maintenance, unexpected outages and low middle distillate stocks pushing prompt supplies to a premium over later deliveries.
Alkagesta Market Insights puts the CIF Northwest Europe ultra-low sulphur diesel crack against Dated Brent at $86.15 a barrel on 8 September. Front-month ICE low sulphur gasoil futures reached $1,568 a tonne on 15 September. Those margins encouraged long-haul imports, although the report warns that US commercial distillate inventories approaching 20-year lows could constrain continued high exports. European buyers also competed with Asian importers, securing between 549,000 and 781,000 tonnes of Indian diesel and gasoil loaded in September for European delivery. Chinese refiners increased allocations of westbound ULSD cargoes.
Mediterranean demand was reinforced by the seasonal switch to French winter-grade diesel with a cold filter plugging point of minus 20°C, alongside local hydrocracker maintenance. The report describes strong market-on-close bidding at Koper, Venice, Lavera and Mersin, with premiums ranging up to $25–$75 a tonne above ICE low sulphur gasoil.
Distribution inland from Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp faced a separate squeeze. Alkagesta reports water depths of 15–20 cm at the Rhine’s Kaub chokepoint by 21 September, with barge freight to Basel exceeding €215 a tonne. It says movements to Upper Rhine destinations in Germany and Switzerland stopped, shifting pressure onto rail and pipelines. Switzerland released 30,000 cubic metres of strategic diesel stocks, according to the review.
For the fourth quarter, Alkagesta expects limited inventories and secondary-unit maintenance to keep diesel supplies tight despite high primary refinery utilisation. It identifies a hydrocracker outage at Portugal’s Sines refinery as a constraint on diesel output. ARA middle distillate stocks were reported at 2.108 million tonnes, 25% below their five-year average. Delayed heating oil purchases in Germany and Switzerland could concentrate buying as temperatures fall, while Rhine restrictions are expected to persist until sustained rainfall. These projections reflect Alkagesta’s assessments rather than assured outcomes; the publication says its analysis draws on internal work and publicly available external information.