Red Sea container capacity doubles in six weeks as carriers accelerate return

Container carriers are accelerating their return to the Red Sea, with weekly capacity on services passing through, or scheduled to resume passage through, the region in at least one direction doubling over six weeks. Hellenic Shipping News, citing Xeneta’s weekly container market update, reported scheduled capacity across Bab el-Mandeb of 448,273 TEU on 5 October.

That total was twice the level recorded on 27 August 2026, although it represented only 48% of the 930,679 TEU offered in August 2023, before vessels began diverting around the Cape of Good Hope. Xeneta senior shipping analyst Emily Stausbøll described the increase as a significant change in carrier strategy, while stressing that only the operators could explain what had altered in their security assessments.

Stausbøll expects the return to release capacity into the global fleet, with substantial consequences for freight rates and services into 2027. October offers a logical window for rerouting because cargo volumes generally ease after the peak season, she said. Congestion across global shipping networks is also likely to absorb some of the capacity made available, at least initially.

Meanwhile, Far East–US spot freight rates had been broadly unchanged for a month, but Xeneta expected downward pressure to strengthen after Golden Week. Carriers cancelled sailings representing 58,200 TEU on the Far East–US West Coast route during the reporting week and 35,500 TEU on the corresponding East Coast trade, according to the update carried by Hellenic Shipping News.

Stausbøll interpreted those withdrawals as an effort to defend existing rate levels rather than a sign that carriers anticipated further gains. US-bound spot rates remained triple-digit percentages above their February levels before the Hormuz crisis, a situation in which operators would ordinarily be increasing capacity, she said.

Far East–Europe rates, by contrast, had steadied after sustained declines, rising 2.5% week on week into North Europe and 3.2% into the Mediterranean. Xeneta attributed this to supply and demand coming back into balance. With US East Coast rates still more than three times those into North Europe, Stausbøll expected the gap to narrow mainly through falling US rates, alongside a smaller strengthening in Europe.