Rhine low water restricts fuel oil movements as ARA stocks build, Alkagesta says

Severe low water on the Rhine has disrupted barge movements and contributed to a build-up of fuel oil at coastal ports, according to Alkagesta Newsroom. In its October market outlook, the commodity trading company's desk described a widening divide between supplies held in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) hub and shortages affecting inland European consumers ahead of the fourth-quarter heating season.

Alkagesta reported water-level readings at the Kaub navigation chokepoint of minus 5 cm on 1 October and 0 cm on 2 October, describing them as record lows. Its assessment said drought had brought Upper Rhine barge navigation to a standstill. The report linked those conditions to reductions in barge loadings at major inland refineries, highlighting Shell Rheinland, with capacity of 190,000 barrels a day, and MiRO Karlsruhe, with 316,000 barrels a day. Loadings had been cut by as much as a third, it said.

The resulting logistical constraints had left heavy refined products accumulating at coastal ports, according to the outlook. Alkagesta put ARA fuel oil inventories at 961,000 tonnes and reported an 18.5% week-on-week increase. It separately cited stocks of 842,000 tonnes in its 8 September fuel oil outlook. That earlier publication had already identified a disconnect between Rhine logistics and the ARA market, the company said.

Alkagesta's account therefore presents coastal stock growth alongside severe inland physical supply deficits, rather than describing a uniform availability picture across Europe. The company attributed that imbalance to the restrictions on river transport serving inland markets as the heating season approached.

The outlook is a company market assessment, drawing on internal analysis and publicly available external material. Alkagesta said some numerical information was derived from or informed by S&P Global Platts publications. It also cautioned that it did not guarantee the information's accuracy or completeness and that forward-looking assessments could differ materially from actual developments.