European gasoil supplies remained tight in October 2026 as restricted Rhine navigation and low inventories offset refiners’ efforts to increase middle distillate production, according to Alkagesta Newsroom. Its 21 October market outlook said these constraints supported physical differentials against front-month ICE Low Sulphur Gasoil futures across Northwest Europe and the Mediterranean, despite pronounced price volatility.
Alkagesta Market Insights reported Rhine water-level readings at Kaub of just 1–2 cm on 6 and 8 October, severely restricting barge deliveries to Germany and Switzerland. Distributors and consumers largely bought only for immediate requirements. Against that backdrop, barge differentials for 50 ppm gasoil, used as heating oil in both countries, moved from a $26.75/tonne discount to front-month futures early in October to a $10.75/tonne premium by mid-month.
Inventory buffers offered limited relief. The outlook put Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp middle distillate holdings at 2.255 million tonnes, 20% below their five-year average, while gasoil and diesel stocks totalled 1.664 million tonnes, down 21% year on year. The middle distillate shortfall had nevertheless narrowed from an earlier assessment of 25% below the five-year average. Alkagesta expected secondary refinery maintenance to constrain further improvements in distillate yields.
Seaborne supply was also affected by costly freight and changing trade patterns. According to the outlook, clean-product volumes transported on LR2 tankers fell 28% year on year to 2.1 million barrels a day over the first nine months of 2026. Arab Gulf-to-UK/Continent LR1 freight reached $220.77/tonne on 19 October, compared with $46.41/tonne a year earlier. Low European stocks and shortages east of Suez drew US Gulf Coast gasoil cargoes towards Northwest European and Mediterranean ports, supporting MR1 tanker utilisation.
West African flows also shifted, with offshore Lomé receiving about 586,000 tonnes of gasoil in the first half of October. Alkagesta said elevated freight costs and the gap between offshore and Nigerian depot prices encouraged local buyers to purchase domestically rather than import directly. Looking ahead, it expected delayed heating-oil purchases in Germany and Switzerland to concentrate spot demand as temperatures fell, while Rhine restrictions would continue until sustained rainfall restored navigability. These forecasts reflect the company’s market assessment rather than assured outcomes.