Increasing EU purchases of US LNG offers limited scope for sustainably narrowing the transatlantic trade deficit, according to a Gas Expert Insights analysis published by Natural Gas World. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen proposed additional imports after Donald Trump’s election, linking reduced reliance on Russian gas with potential leverage against tariffs. The analysis argues that commercial incentives and Europe’s longer-term demand outlook complicate that approach.
EU imports of US LNG fell to 51 billion cubic metres in 2024 from 62 bcm in 2023, the analysis reports. High storage inventories, strong pipeline supplies and flat gas demand reduced requirements, while more attractive Asian markets drew US cargoes elsewhere. Nevertheless, the US accounted for 45% of the EU’s 114 bcm of LNG imports, and the bloc took 43% of the 119 bcm exported by the US.
The analysis anticipated higher EU purchases in 2025, but stressed that flexible cargoes would reach Europe only when prices competed sufficiently with Asia. It said high European spot prices had provided that incentive in early 2025. Chinese retaliatory tariffs on US LNG could also encourage Chinese buyers to redirect contracted shipments towards Europe, independently of any EU purchasing commitment.
Long-term contracting presents another obstacle. European buyers signed around 23 bcm a year of contracts with US projects under construction following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with utilities accounting for 55% and European-based international oil companies taking the remainder. Another 12 bcm a year was contracted with projects awaiting final investment decisions. However, utilities face uncertain import needs, methane emissions requirements and restrictions preventing long-term contracts for unabated gas from extending beyond 2049. The Commission itself has no legal entity authorised to purchase LNG for European countries, the analysis notes.
The trade arithmetic also limits LNG’s potential contribution. Citing US Census Bureau figures, the analysis puts US LNG exports to the EU at approximately $13 billion in 2024, equivalent to 5.4% of the $236 billion trade deficit. European valuations produce a higher proportion, close to 8%, reflecting differences in reported prices. Contracting additional US supply would not necessarily increase bilateral trade: destination flexibility allows European buyers to sell cargoes elsewhere. The analysis also warns that raising the US share of EU LNG imports to 80–90% would weaken supplier diversification, while declining European gas demand could eventually reduce import requirements.