Shipping risks missing its 2030 target for scalable zero-emission fuels as uncertainty over global regulation weakens demand and investment, gCaptain reported, citing an assessment by the UCL Energy Institute and Getting to Zero Coalition. The findings show a widening gap between progress in alternative-fuel technology and the commercial conditions needed to deploy it.
The International Maritime Organization’s Net-Zero Framework, agreed in principle last year, still awaits formal adoption. It would progressively tighten limits on the greenhouse gas intensity of marine fuels, with an economic mechanism charging higher-emitting vessels and rewarding cleaner energy use. The assessment identified the failure to adopt it last year as the most significant setback to the transition in the report’s five-year history.
According to figures reported by gCaptain, vessels capable of using scalable zero-emission fuels accounted for 5.7% of global orderbook tonnage, down from 9.5% a year earlier. Shipping-specific sustainable debt issuance declined from $3.4 billion in 2024 to $3 billion in 2025. Meanwhile, the number of ports providing methanol bunkering rose from 19 to 29, operational methanol-capable tonnage tripled, and the industry carried out its first ammonia bunkering operations and sea trials.
The 2030 ambition is for scalable zero-emission fuels to supply at least 5%, and preferably 10%, of international shipping’s fuel use, supporting the IMO’s goal of net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by or around 2050. The assessment judged technology, zero-emission fuel supply and civil society engagement partly on course, but found demand, finance and policy were falling behind. Owners must make engine and fuel choices for thousands of ships that could still be operating well into the 2040s.
Governments remain divided over the framework’s economic mechanism, which is expected to raise roughly $10 billion-$15 billion annually. At the latest IMO technical negotiations, gCaptain reported that 38 countries explicitly backed retaining carbon pricing and the revenue mechanism, while 17, mainly oil-producing countries, opposed it over cost concerns. The United States is also a leading opponent.
Further technical talks are scheduled for November 23-27, followed by MEPC 85 from November 30 to December 3. The framework is expected to return for possible adoption at an extraordinary MEPC session on December 4. The Getting to Zero Coalition warned that prolonged uncertainty could postpone investment in zero-emission vessels, fuels and infrastructure as a major fleet renewal cycle approaches.